Russia-Ukraine War

[Observe]

If US will take its leave then someone else will lead. On that matter it's maybe not the worst idea, US leadership is spotty

Spotty, US aid may be, but they have donated at least $75 billion, which is more than all other countries combined! I'm not sure who could take up the slack if the US money funnel stops.

Other issues are of more concern to Americans. One of the biggies, is the fentanyl crisis, which is related to the border fiasco, which has resulted in more than 110 thousand overdoses annually. Depending on fog-of-war death number propaganda, we are losing as many of our own people to the border crisis fueled by Chinese chemicals as is being lost by Ukraine in their war.

So, as you can see, the US has pressing matters of its own. Supporting one of the most (if not the most) corrupt nations in Europe, isn't all that appealing for a growing number on this side of the pond.

[Vertigo 7]

Yeah? And what are you gonna do when papa Putin makes good on his threats and invades Alaska? That then suddenly puts this fight on our soil. I suppose your answer will be "listen to his side" while he's rolling tanks through Anchorage, ya?

[Observe]

Yeah? And what are you gonna do when papa Putin makes good on his threats and invades Alaska? That then suddenly puts this fight on our soil. I suppose your answer will be "listen to his side" while he's rolling tanks through Anchorage, ya?

To my knowledge, Putin hasn't threatened to invade Alaska. Sounds like you have hopped onto a propaganda bandwagon of some form or other. I do seem to recall some Russian politician making vague threats to that effect, but people say all manner of things when emotions run high. I definitely do not buy into the idea that if we don't stop Russia in Ukraine, we will all be speaking Russian before long. I did buy into that kind of thinking back in Vietnam, but I have come to cast a skeptical ear whenever politicians of any stripe speak.

[notaterran]

[...] I am still betting on collapse of Russia before defeat of Ukraine, which is no longer possible.

Best case scenario for Putin, he gets a Pyrrhic victory. Russia has committed too many atrocities in Ukraine and the Ukrainians are still not broken. For example, the Afghans had less weapons and were fighting a more powerful enemy (the Soviet Union) and that war ended with a Soviet retreat. Even if the West stops providing weapons to Ukraine (a big mistake) Ukrainians might fight to the end. History provides good examples of last stands and what happens to the "victors".

[Observe]

Even if the West stops providing weapons to Ukraine (a big mistake) Ukrainians might fight to the end.

Considering the fighting is occurring within Ukraine territory, I wonder how many Ukraine citizens are being killed by their own (our) artillery? Then there's the complete demolition of the cities, villages and countryside. No doubt the US and allies will be expected to foot the lions share of the bill to rebuild the wreckage. I hope Ukraine doesn't fight to the last man. Then, the only victor will be the United States, which wishes to see a weakened Russia and doesn't actually give a damn about the Ukraine people in reality.

[notaterran]

Even if the West stops providing weapons to Ukraine (a big mistake) Ukrainians might fight to the end.

Considering the fighting is occurring within Ukraine territory, I wonder how many Ukraine citizens are being killed by their own (our) artillery?

Probably very few compared to the Ukrainian citizens killed by the Russian war criminals.

[Observe]

Probably very few compared to the Ukrainian citizens killed by the Russian war criminals.

True. It seems that the vast majority of the area stolen by Russia, remains uncontested. The few limited areas that are taking the brunt of repeated back and forth carnage, have probably mostly been evacuated already. Although the city of Bakhmut is reported to still have around 5,000 people living there, if living applies in this case.

[fiksal]

If US will take its leave then someone else will lead. On that matter it's maybe not the worst idea, US leadership is spotty

Spotty, US aid may be, but they have donated at least $75 billion, which is more than all other countries combined! I'm not sure who could take up the slack if the US money funnel stops.

Other issues are of more concern to Americans. One of the biggies, is the fentanyl crisis, which is related to the border fiasco, which has resulted in more than 110 thousand overdoses annually. Depending on fog-of-war death number propaganda, we are losing as many of our own people to the border crisis fueled by Chinese chemicals as is being lost by Ukraine in their war.

So, as you can see, the US has pressing matters of its own. Supporting one of the most (if not the most) corrupt nations in Europe, isn't all that appealing for a growing number on this side of the pond.

The course of actions by US has been correct so far, and money and equipment donated is a good thing, no argument there.

My point is, it's bad for US to take the isolationist approach, but the void will still be filled, by one or more countries, even if aid will be less.

The Ukraine doesn't need to fight till last man, they just need to fight till the last Russian.

To remind everyone, the wars that Russia had lost recently having superior everything: Afghanistan, Chechnya (we can discuss if you like, but Chechnya won that one).

Not too long ago superior everything army lost battles for Kyiv. Has been losing men and conquered territory ever since.

And we are now at the inferior army portion of the history.

Ukrainians also know what will happen to them and people who are left behind in the Russian occupied territory. Current war spells it out, USSR history spells it out.


On the question of Alaska. It's a fantasy, but it's a fantasy at the end of the line of fantasies.

Remember when I asked about what's enough?

Here's what Putin's regime is toying with:
- absorbing Ukraine and ethnic cleansing, so called reeducation, relocation, executions
- absorbing the rest USSR states, same way, using same people from conquered territories, all to avoid the war West must step away
- probing NATO countries, see if NATO backs away from a nuclear threat and concedes part of Europe that is "meant" for Russia. All to avoid the war, NATO must sacrifice something
- Dugin had drawn plans how Germany should embrace its nationalistic past and join Russia with dividing Europe. Good stuff. Putin reads that crap btw.
- then maybe Alaska, since it's a historical Russian land, with original Russians still living there btw

all of these repeated on state TV to see which of these fires up people the most.

Alaska included, comes up from time to time.
https://www.businessinsider.com/kremlin ... sia-2022-7
I first had heard it in 2015 or so

[fiksal]

[...] I am still betting on collapse of Russia before defeat of Ukraine, which is no longer possible.

Best case scenario for Putin, he gets a Pyrrhic victory. Russia has committed too many atrocities in Ukraine and the Ukrainians are still not broken. For example, the Afghans had less weapons and were fighting a more powerful enemy (the Soviet Union) and that war ended with a Soviet retreat. Even if the West stops providing weapons to Ukraine (a big mistake) Ukrainians might fight to the end. History provides good examples of last stands and what happens to the "victors".

That's a possibility, but even Putin hard liners won't see it as victory.

Some 50 years later someone will total up the dead and find it how many Russians were killed, and how many atrocities were committed. The modern Russia operates on such intervals.

[Observe]

The Ukraine doesn't need to fight till last man, they just need to fight till the last Russian.

Russia has over four times more active duty soldiers than Ukraine and over 9 times more in reserve. Minus death or removal of Putin, guess who will run out of soldiers first.

I would hazard to guess, that Russia is waiting to pounce on Kyiv as soon as Ukraine runs low on soldiers, or as soon as Ukraine runs out of international weapons support. Western allies are already saying they are running out of ammunition, so now may be the last best chance Ukraine has for a peace deal, before they lose even more land and even their entire country.

[Falcrack]

The Ukraine doesn't need to fight till last man, they just need to fight till the last Russian.

Russia has over four times more active duty soldiers than Ukraine and over 9 times more in reserve. Minus death or removal of Putin, guess who will run out of soldiers first.

I would hazard to guess, that Russia is waiting to pounce on Kyiv as soon as Ukraine runs low on soldiers, or as soon as Ukraine runs out of international weapons support. Western allies are already saying they are running out of ammunition, so now may be the last best chance Ukraine has for a peace deal, before they lose even more land and even their entire country.

I think if Ukraine demonstrates their resolve to keep fighting for their freedom even in the face of impossible odds, they will ultimately prevail, and will continue to receive support, if not from the US, then from other sources.

[Vertigo 7]

Yeah? And what are you gonna do when papa Putin makes good on his threats and invades Alaska? That then suddenly puts this fight on our soil. I suppose your answer will be "listen to his side" while he's rolling tanks through Anchorage, ya?

To my knowledge, Putin hasn't threatened to invade Alaska. Sounds like you have hopped onto a propaganda bandwagon of some form or other. I do seem to recall some Russian politician making vague threats to that effect, but people say all manner of things when emotions run high. I definitely do not buy into the idea that if we don't stop Russia in Ukraine, we will all be speaking Russian before long. I did buy into that kind of thinking back in Vietnam, but I have come to cast a skeptical ear whenever politicians of any stripe speak.

It's all saber rattling until it isn't. Putin has been building up his forces in eastern Russia for the last year and change. Japan has been harassed by Russia over territory Russia claims belongs to them. You can go back to the earliest pages of this thread and see people not taking his threat seriously and denied Russia was going to invade Ukraine.

If he thinks he can invade and get away with it, he will do it, because that's who he is. His excuse to justify it is/will be to protect ethnic Russians from Nazis or whatever. And while Alaska is a deep red state so Nazi presence is likely, we all know it's bs.

For the many wrongs that was the Vietnam War, dunno why you keep trying to equate this to that. These are not the same times and circumstances, even remotely.

[burger1]

Ukraine has over 900k troops currently. So might be close to Russias? Ukrainians are stuck fighting but Russians aren't.

US still has about 5.2 to 7 billion in aid money left for Ukraine to hold them over for a few + months.

Not sure if they can give seized money/assets to Ukraine. There's over 300 billion worth (?) ~ enough for 10 more years of war.

Allies other than the US are now the major suppliers even before the US government shutdown threat.

Lend lease has expired and was never used.

Ukraine is getting seized Iranian weapons.

What we see in the news papers/what politicians do isn't necessarily what happens. Some arms of the government basically just do what they want regardless.

The US military industrial complex probably has a very large political influence. Might be bigger than big oil. They have already started expanding production and have orders to fill.

Iranian weapon shipments are currently being used by Russia. They traded for weapon technology.

Democrats are likely to win the presidential election.

Public support polls are all over the place. Support for Ukraine is definitely there and still in the majority which is pretty good after nearly 2 years of war. Public support for wars usually falls off after the first while and becomes a minority.

[fiksal]

The Ukraine doesn't need to fight till last man, they just need to fight till the last Russian.

Russia has over four times more active duty soldiers than Ukraine and over 9 times more in reserve. Minus death or removal of Putin, guess who will run out of soldiers first.

I would hazard to guess, that Russia is waiting to pounce on Kyiv as soon as Ukraine runs low on soldiers, or as soon as Ukraine runs out of international weapons support. Western allies are already saying they are running out of ammunition, so now may be the last best chance Ukraine has for a peace deal, before they lose even more land and even their entire country.

there's some quantity vs quality there,

I will clarify my statement then

Ukraine needed to kill those that wanted to fight and those that were trained, that part is done. Now what's left are those that don't want to fight, untrained, unhealthy. Now every death of those soldiers will resonate harder back at home.

It's not like Russia has been pulling punches, this has been everything.

There's some hope that full mobilization will be enough destabilizing that Russia as a country will not survive. That's why Putin isn't doing it, he fears it too. He might be pressured to do it though, which is good news for all.


And of course, going back full circle to Afghanistan, Chechnya

[notaterran]

Chances are full mobilization might be done unofficially to avoid discontent, perhaps Russia is already there. Putin seems to be aware that most Russians don't want to fight.

[fiksal]

Chances are full mobilization might be done unofficially to avoid discontent, perhaps Russia is already there. Putin seems to be aware that most Russians don't want to fight.

they seemed to be drawing on poor and vulnerable while avoiding drafting in big cities.

I would call it full when everyone is taken

[mr.WHO]

on the matter of the war, I think Ukrainians have a plan.
I am still betting on collapse of Russia before defeat of Ukraine, which is no longer possible.

There is a polish saying:
"Don't split the hide on (alive) bear"


Sadly there is a simple math:
Russia, despite all it's blunders, still has supplies to keep this war running for 2-3 years.
Ukraine, on life support has supplies for a few months.

You can have all the valor and morale in the world, but it won't help you, if you don't have bullets, spare parts and missiles.


Last two weeks there is an increase of Russian Airforce footage doing CAS and even striking a few Ukrainian convoys behind frontlines - Ukraine AA defense is waning, which is not good sign, given preparations for Russian winter missile campaign.
Despite valiant efforts, Ukraine only managed to break one defensive line (out of 3-4, depending in which direction you count) and the breach is tiny (5-6 km wide), leading to nowhere (more russian defense lines in all directions).
During the winter, Russians can just boost existing defense lines and even build 1-2 additional ones.

F-16s and ATACAMs won't be game changers, they will be lifesavers to desperately keep the status quo.

I fear that in 2024, Ukraine will be back to fighting for their very existence.
Unless West say "f*ck it" and start donating everything (like F-18, A-10, more Abrams, Leo, Bradleys).


This more and more starts to look like The Winter War.
Finland made stunning defense, kicking USSR in the nuts, but in the end USSR reorganized and renewed the assault, so Finland had no chance and had beg for peace.
We forget that in the end it was Finland loss, territorial and political.

[Sovereign01]

From another board:

Russia has heavily mined these areas, and is still doing so as we speak.

This means that UA forces can only advance in places they know to be cleared (where the Russian counterattacks are coming from) or where they cleared a route.

Both means that Russia always knows exactly where they are coming from and limits the maximum combat width the UA forces can employ. This means they always have to soften up any target for days and weeks until they can afford to advance, for they will run into a kill zone.

Russian officers, on the other hand, do not hesitate to send their troops into said zones. Including tanks.

UA forces are using their tanks in a long-range artillery sniper role, firing at 2-3 km, only using them close-up in the ultimate pushes when they are storming a fortification. Also, most of their losses are due to mines and fire in combat, while Russians are mostly lost due to drones and drone-supported artillery en route to the attack.

Independent picture analysis sees Russian losses at currently roughly 2 times the Ukrainian losses, which is hilarious, as the Russians had 3-4 times higher losses while they were attacking, which is normal. so the UA is having 1:2 losses when they should have 3:1.

Killing artillery is the most important thing UA can do, as Russian artillery is pretty much the source of most combat losses - their remaining guns are crap, but they have a lot and just blanket the UA positions. Not sustainable, but it has an effect.

Right now, the biggest thing that is happening is seeing that the Russian air defence is pretty much going extinct - Sevastopol is completely open to attacks. This will make a huge difference in the way the UA forces can deploy aeroplanes. Bombs can do so much more than just artillery. Not all the way there, yet, but once the F16 are there, they will have pretty open skies they can operate in.

Mud is going to be not much of a problem - it limits movement, but these days - 800m a day is a lightning advance.

The Ukrainian drone army is very well suited to this - the Russians won't be able to get supplies and heavy equipment moved easily, so their combat eff. is going to drop.
No leafy canopy to hide stuff under - better for UA with more drones and better artillery.

Also, the Ruskies can't just drive trucks into fields and drop mines everywhere if the trucks get stuck. Slower mining.
Stuck trucks on the roads - good targets for UA drones, which are now EVERYWHERE.

Drones and artillery can still take out russian trenches (which will be flooded, on top), but now the Russians can't just fall back quickly and then counterattack in huge masses. Slowly advancing Ukrainian small detachments, otoh, will not get bogged down as much, and will be able to occupy those trenches (mostly at night, when the remaining Russians are pretty much blind, too.) Also - younger, fitter, better trained Ukranians vs. older, untrained and poorly equipped Russian conscripts in bad weather, mud, flooded trenches and worse than usual supply (which is currently good on UA side and bad on the Russian side, already)

Childs play? No. Favouring Ukraine? Yes.

[mr.WHO]

Mud is going to be not much of a problem - it limits movement, but these days - 800m a day is a lightning advance.

Ukraine had nearly perfect weather conditions for 4 months and they managed to push like what, 10 km, if we're generous.

Try to say mud is not a problem, when you're in crap weather, stuck in it, while having russian scatter mines all around you, having Lancets over your head and Russian artillery gradually zero-in you.

[burger1]

Russia sends various missiles zig zagging forwards, backwards,left and right to detect where Ukraine's air defences are. Missiles aren't flow directly to a target.

There have been some losses but they might have been from being too close to the front line. The stopped train near the front lines that got hit by the Russian glide bomb shouldn't have happened. Second emptier train that got blown up = ? Power supplies for winter getting blown up also shouldn't have happened. All their stuff should be dispersed to such an extent that it becomes uneconomical to destroy it.

Weather and mud varies throughout Ukraine? Might not be as muddy in the current front lines?

Sevastopol still gets attacked.

Ukraine is still blowing stuff up and taking land. The area of land taken likely doesn't reflect how the war is going at this point in the war. The destruction of targets deeper behind the lines is more important. Logistics, manufacturing, supplies. Ukraine also needs to blow up larger targets in Russia. Needs bunker busters and vacuum bombs. Maybe start attacking from the oceans surrounding Russia rather than just from the black sea? Lots of wide open areas.

Ukraine also declined volunteers from various countries. They can use them if it ends up being a boon. Might cause more issues/dangers? There's likely still tons of foreign volunteers. Ukraine can also (???) recall conscripts/people from out side Ukraine. Might not work well.

Private user media seems to be doing weird stuff. Example youtube. Maybe a psyop or the tail end result of a psyop? For example playing up small losses that don't really matter and making a false doomed like atmosphere. Look at results/data vs words.