Russia-Ukraine War

[fiksal]

Perhaps better to approve weapons with more fire power soon.

Can Ukraine has something with long range and air superiority?

Over 1000 Russians killed today.

Russian news are signaling to the subjects that the war will be eternal, as, get this, Russia was at war with the West since Russia's existence and always will be.

[chew-ie]

Russian news are signaling to the subjects that the war will be eternal, as, get this, Russia was at war with the West since Russia's existence and always will be.

Seems they reached that "Do you want the total war?" stage. Time to rent a stadium and shout it out loud.

[fiksal]

Russian news are signaling to the subjects that the war will be eternal, as, get this, Russia was at war with the West since Russia's existence and always will be.

Seems they reached that "Do you want the total war?" stage. Time to rent a stadium and shout it out loud.

whatever that even is at this point


Russian commentators are saying Russia is slowly self imploding, cooking up interesting mix of fascism, and ultra / brutal Christianity;

while English speaking commentators are saying Russia is looking at the constant war state similar to North Korea, as the only way to sustain the country with dissolving rights, economy, and male population.

[notaterran]

[...] Russia is looking at the constant war state similar to North Korea [...]

I agree, that seems to be Russia's future (with the weakened military that comes with it). Looking forward to regular empty threats, like North Korea has been doing for decades.

[burger1]

Ukraine still hasn't lost popularity. 40-60% approve. Poll results are variable. Support for wars usually falls off much faster and support is still there and higher than normal.

EU will likely give Ukraine 50 billion soon along with other aid. 50 billion should last ~ 20 months. Germany is doubling it's support and might be out doing support from the US currently. US and other countries are still doing joint ventures with Ukraine.

US moving forward to use seized Russian assets to finance the war.

Ukraine has threatened Russian trade, etc... if they attack their energy grid again. Maybe pipelines to India/China? Underwater stuff? Specialized equipment to repair stuff? Not hard to hurt the Russian economy directly since it's a large country with many static structures.

Ukraine likely needs high yield weapons with longer ranges to destroy Russian production facilities. For example tank factories are the size of a small city.

[notaterran]

If Ukraine attacks Russia's pipelines, that's going to send prices skyrocketing and politicians might stop aid to Ukraine. And Ukraine wouldn't have to worry about hitting Russia's oil production even more since the West already abandoned them. Are we looking at an energy crisis this winter? It might be a lot cheaper for the West to continue aid to Ukraine.

[mr.WHO]

It seem US bought 60 Gepards from Jordan.

With Germany setting up the ammo production this will probably at least solve the Sahed drones problem for the winter.

[Observe]

If Ukraine attacks Russia's pipelines, that's going to send prices skyrocketing and politicians might stop aid to Ukraine.

It has seemed fairly obvious (to me) that it was Ukraine who blew up the Russian Nord Stream pipeline, so I wouldn't be too surprised if they engage in similar attacks. The Washington Post (paywall) has an article about a senior Ukrainian military officer alleging as much - although I suppose some will automatically chalk that up as Russian propaganda of some sort or other, although I'm not sure how.

[Alan Phipps]

I thought that the official Russian line about Nordstream at the time was that they had 'proof' that it was done by UK/NATO Special Forces. Once they have claimed that they have proof showing one far-fetched version (for which no evidence was disclosed), then they can't later claim it was something else entirely with any credibility. Still, I digress.

[fiksal]

Once they have claimed that they have proof showing one far-fetched version (for which no evidence was disclosed), then they can't later claim it was something else entirely with any credibility. Still, I digress.

Usually in these situations that's why I think it was Russia. As soon as they start saying they have the evidence but never show, I automatically assume they are admitting to this. I can't quickly find what all was said by the Russians.

But I did find a news cast from Russian State tv from September where it was claimed USA either did it or had directed the attack.

teaser goes like this

A policy of double standards is in play, an international investigation has been announced, but, in fact, is not being carried out. Russia demands justice be restored, but the United States is doing everything to lead the investigation on false trails.

[burger1]

Not sure if it's new record but Ukraine reported 1300+ Russians killed in a day.

The coke plant in Avdiivka still stands despite Russia bombing it with larger bombs.

It looks like the Avdiivka region will be getting rain/snow this coming week and below freezing temperatures at night. Weather reports are a bit variable but overall call for wet weather and cooler temperatures. Might hamper Russian efforts to capture the supply road to the city?

2 billion euros (~2.2b usd) more in Ukraine aid given by the Netherlands.

Ukraine expands and reinforces it's bridgehead across the Dnipro river. Might be hard to support an advance there due to lack of antiaircraft stuff, supply lines and artillery support. Could potentially cut off Crimea but would require much more work. It's much less defended by Russia than other areas.

[mr.WHO]

Ukraine expands and reinforces it's bridgehead across the Dnipro river. Might be hard to support an advance there due to lack of antiaircraft stuff, supply lines and artillery support. Could potentially cut off Crimea but would require much more work. It's much less defended by Russia than other areas.

Sadly, this one will never be a viable strategic direction - if Ukraine commit bigger forces there, Russia has an option to bomb a few remaining dams upstream Dnipro. This would cut of significant Ukrainian forces for Russia to easily crush.
This is the reason why neither side treat this region seriosly - it's undefendable for Russia, but unassailable for Ukraine.


My idea was to quietly and gradually drop water from remaining dams, soon after Nova Kachowka dam was destroyed, so that Dnipro would be safe to cross and set up logistic bride by summer/early atumn.
Ukraine didn't do it - might that water level drop would be easily spotted by Russian, so there would be no element of supprise.

[burger1]

It's looks like Iran is providing more than drones to Russia. At least artillery shells which would help explain their sudden surplus. Meaning North Korea and Iran are supplying Russia in exchange for missiles/nuclear tech. Russia's still suffering large losses during their offensive.

US Ukraine aid package might be coming before Xmas? Likely a believe it when it happens situation. Other countries have been giving Ukraine more supplies from their stocks.

[notaterran]

Russian losses in recent months have been horrendous because now the Ukrainians are defending again. Do you think that Avdiivka will become another Bakhmut? Even if the Ukrainians retreat they cannot be disappointed at the price that Russia has already paid.

[burger1]

Avdiivka is a political target due to Putin's reelection campaign. Currently it's either slowly being taken over or it's being held. The weather is bad.

Ukraine had a big storm and is currently having bad weather. In Crimea they maybe have had 30 ft waves and quite a few of the Russia defences where damaged or destroyed along the black sea.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ju2gcIFwJy4

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ua/14 ... a/avdiivka

Russian tank factory catches fire way behind enemy lines. Might have repaired tanks also?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYk7iDqQFVc

New ~1.3b usd aid package from Germany in the past few days. It's in addition to the other aid package.

Truckers block traffic to Ukraine.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/ ... d-blockade

Finland closes border with Russia.

Turkey/Hungary still haven't allowed Sweden into Nato yet. Hungary had some aid money released. Turkey wasn't allowed to purchase newer fighter planes.

Ukraine takes more land in the south. Some 2014 invasion areas retaken.

Russia launched a large drone attack

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-uk ... -1.7040154

[mr.WHO]

Russian losses in recent months have been horrendous because now the Ukrainians are defending again. Do you think that Avdiivka will become another Bakhmut? Even if the Ukrainians retreat they cannot be disappointed at the price that Russia has already paid.

I will sound like a broken record, but we must stop treating Russian losses like a losses - Russia is not a normal country, so normal logic doesn't apply to them.

Recently there was "soldiers' wifes/mothers" protest in Moscow and you know how Putin resolved it? Made sure to pay wifes/mothers/families "soldiers bonus".

RUSSIA.IS.NOT.A.NORMAL.COUNTRY

For average Russian family, their fathers and brothers are worth more away in army or dead, than alive and next to them!

Whole freaking Russia army should be treat as slightly different form of Wagner mercenary.

Who fight in Russian army?

- criminals - nobody care if they die, it's net benefit for Russia if they do.
- minorities - Russians doesn't care if the die, it's net benefit for Russia if they do - there is nobody to rebel or separatist is most is dead or crippled.
- soldiers who fight for money - their families doesn't care if they die or not, there is a monetary bonus if they do.
- Ukrainians from occupied areas that accepted Russian passport - Russia doesn't care, better cleanse them before they change their mind.
- They even started to give away Russian passport to foreigners and immediately mobilize them (e.g Cubans, Kazahstani)

Whoever had brain and shreads of human decency, fled abroad during first wave of mobilisation.

This means Russia can take gigantic losses and doesn't care (the demographic collapse with happen 10-20 years in future, but Putin will be long dead by then, so he doesn't care).

[notaterran]

I worry that war crimes are disappearing quickly from the news, whether it's Russia bombing a supermarket, Israel bombing a refugee camp and many more atrocities. I wonder if becoming numb to all of this will become the new normal.

[UnknownObject]

LGBT banned in Russia.
Another "screw the laws, we do what we think to be right" action.

[chew-ie]

Great country to live in - if you are from the stoneage.

[mr.WHO]

Aparently Russia encourage Wenezuela to annex 2/3 of neighbour Guyana - there is a referendum in Wenezuela about annexation in a few days:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Vene ... referendum

Brazil is deploying troops to the border in reaction...but just a glimpse on Google maps makes obvious that Brasil can't do sh*t - they have only one, very long logistic line through middle of Amazon (which is famous for ultra difficult traverse even during peace time).